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18.2.05

An Asian catch-22

According to this story from World Net Daily:
  • Five members of the House of Representatives, led by Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., want to renew debate about President Jimmy Carter's unilateral 1979 decision to sever ties with the elected government of Taiwan in an effort to curry favor with mainland China.

    A resolution was introduced in the House Wednesday calling for the Bush administration to scrap its "one China" policy and resume full, formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
This article in the Washington Post says:
  • The United States and Japan will declare Saturday for the first time in a joint agreement that Taiwan is a mutual security concern, according to a draft of the document. Analysts called the move a demonstration of Japan's willingness to confront the rapidly growing might of China.
The Pakistan Daily Times offers this response from the Chinese perspective:
  • China denounced on Thursday a CIA assessment saying that its arms buildup is tilting the balance of power in the Taiwan Straits, and said the comments sent the wrong signal to Taiwan, the self-governing island it claims as its own.
All of this comes on the heels of the recent North Korean admission regarding its nuclear weapons, and its subsuquent demand for bilateral talks with the United States.

I believe that the Chinese government would be able to exert the necessary pressure on the North Koreans in exchange for giving up its nuclear weapons. On the other hand, any U.S. involvement would result in little more than monetary payoffs for non-agression guarantees.

However, how will China's position on North Korean nuclear weapons change after the U.S. and Japan side with Taiwan tomorrow? Are those American and Japanese declarations of unity with Taiwan a response to a lackluster and half-hearted Chinese involvement in the 6-party talks of recent years?