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13.1.06

The writing is on the wall...

According to Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley Chief Economist:

It is quite possible that we’re being too analytical in attempting to discern why it all went so well on the global macro front in 2005. It may simply be that the stars were in near perfect alignment, enabling the world to buy an extra year of time. I think the odds are low that an unbalanced world economy will continue to draw support from such a favorable constellation of forces. Reversals are possible on three fronts -- the liquidity cycle, the US property market, or the dollar. Shifts in any one of these areas could well be enough to transform the global outcome from benign to malign. The interplay between these forces could be especially lethal.


According to John Snow, United States Treasury Secretary:

[T]he U.S. economy is the picture of economic health and we remain, as the president often notes, the economic envy of the world.


Let's see, the federal government is selling one version of the truth, and the chief economist of one of the largest corporations in the world is selling quite a different version.

I'll go with the latter, but as they say, buyer beware.